A FORECAST METHOD COMBINING x (1) (1) WITH x (1) (n ) AS
INITIAL VALUE OF GM(1,1) MODEL
College of Geoscience and Surveying Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology, Beijing 100083
Abstract In order to reestablish the initial value for GM (1,1) model, we proposed a new approach to improve prediction accuracy of GM(1,1) model through optimization of the initial value, which is comprised of the first and the nth vector as the initialization, and derived from a method of least error summation of square. Then we discussed the parameter which affects the fitting results. By contrasting the improved one to the GM(1,1) about the simulation and prediction, we can conclude that the improved one is superior in prediction and simulation, and it is proved that the optimum one widen its suitable range.
Key words :
GM(1,1) model
initial value
parameter
suitable range
forecast
Received: 07 December 2012
Published: 18 June 2013
Cite this article:
Yuan Debao,Cui Ximin,Gao Ning. A FORECAST METHOD COMBINING x (1) (1) WITH x (1) (n ) AS
INITIAL VALUE OF GM(1,1) MODEL[J]. jgg, 2013, 33(3): 79-82.
Yuan Debao,Cui Ximin,Gao Ning. A FORECAST METHOD COMBINING x (1) (1) WITH x (1) (n ) AS
INITIAL VALUE OF GM(1,1) MODEL[J]. jgg, 2013, 33(3): 79-82.
URL:
http://www.jgg09.com/EN/ OR http://www.jgg09.com/EN/Y2013/V33/I3/79
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