Abstract We calculated the recurrence intervals of characteristic earthquakes of major active faults in southern SichuanYunnan region with GPS data method and seismic moment method and the characteristic earthquake probabilities derived from realtime models in the future 10 a,30 a,50 a and 100 a. The results show that the values of probability for earthquake recurrence in the southern SichuanYunnan region are as follows: Xiaoxiangling segment of Anninghe fault,Dongchuan segment of Xiaojiang fault, MianningXichang segment of Anninghe fault,Zemuhe fault, LijiangNinglang segment of LijiangXiaojinhe fault, Huaning and SongmingYiliang segments of Xiaojiang fault and northwestern segment of Red River fault.
Zhang Xiaoliang,and Xie Furen. MIDDLE AND LONGTERM SEISMIC RISK EVALUATION OF SOUTHERN SICHUANYUNNAN REGION BASED ON GPS DATA AND REALTIME PROBABILISTIC MODEL[J]. , 2009, 29(3): 38-41.
Zhang Xiaoliang,and Xie Furen. MIDDLE AND LONGTERM SEISMIC RISK EVALUATION OF SOUTHERN SICHUANYUNNAN REGION BASED ON GPS DATA AND REALTIME PROBABILISTIC MODEL[J]. jgg, 2009, 29(3): 38-41.