Abstract:Seismic risk analysis is one of the important contents of seismological research and earthquake disaster prevention and mitigation, it has important reference values for urban planning, development of seismic standards for buildings, risk assessment and disaster mitigation public policy formulation. Seismic risk analysis includes two aspects: prediction of earthquake occurrence possibility and distribution of strong ground motion caused by earthquake rupture, where the prediction of earthquake occurrence probability or activity, which is the basis of seismic risk analysis, gives the probability of earthquake occurrence in the area of concern within a given time frame. In this paper, we briefly review the history of research from earthquake forecasting to probabilistic analysis of earthquake activity, summarize the current challenges faced, and look forward to future efforts.