Abstract:The necessity of the shortterm prediction of polar motion and the current common prediction approach are discussed. ARIMA(P,1,0) is used in prediction of stochastic components in polar motion before,non a combinational model of least squares extrapolation and ARIMA(P,1,0) is given to forecast the polar motion from one to five day in the future. Through accuracy analysis, the efficiency and superiority of this model is proved.
Zhang Hao,Wang Qijie,Zhu Jianjun et al. APPLICATION OF COMBINATIONAL MODEL OF LEAST SQUARES EXTRAPOLATION AND ARIMA(P,1,0) IN SHORT-TERM PREDICTION OF POLAR MOTION[J]. jgg, 2011, 31(3): 106-109.