Application of ARMA Model in Detecting Ionospheric TEC Anomaly Prior to Earthquake
1 Department of Physics, Dalian Maritime University, 1 Linghai Road, Dalian 116026, China
2 College of Information Science and Technology, Dalian Maritime University, 1 Linghai Road, Dalian 116026, China
Abstract：In this paper, we use ionospheric TEC data provided by International GPS Service (IGS) tracking stations to examine the ionospheric variations during the Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake that occurred on May 12, 2008, in China. In data processing, the ARMA model based on the theory of time series is adopted, and the predicted TEC of ARMA model is regard as the background reference value of TEC in the ionosphere. Comparing the results with the previous conclusion, we also found the anomalous ionospheric disturbances 13 d,12 d,10 d and 7 d before the earthquake. The results indicate that the establishment of the ARMA model is reasonable and reliable, and it also can achieve high accuracy in the detection of the ionospheric TEC anomalies prior to earthquake effectively, based on the data derived from IGS.
